'There will never be ‘victory’': Nobel laureate Dmitry Muratov on Putin's Ukraine war

Nobel Peace Prize winner Dmitry Muratov asserts that Russian President Vladimir Putin can no longer claim victory in Ukraine, stating that the nearly five-year conflict, regardless of its ultimate outcome, has inflicted irreparable damage on both nations. Muratov, the former chief editor of the now-defunct independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta, argues that the war has decimated millions and fundamentally altered the perception of a successful outcome for Russia. He suggests that while Ukraine might be destroyed, it cannot be conquered, hinting at a potential for further escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons.

Muratov's assessment stems from his observation of escalating rhetoric and discussions around nuclear weapons in Russian state media and forums, which he finds alarming. He points to over 500 mentions of nuclear weapon use since the beginning of 2024, a figure that transcends fringe commentary and appears in state-sanctioned events. This, coupled with the war's prolonged nature and the ensuing domestic crises such as petrol shortages and disrupted internet services, leads him to question the initial Kremlin objective of "ensuring the security of Russia." He believes these factors undermine any claim of a successful military operation.

The Background: Crushing Dissent

Novaya Gazeta, co-founded by Dmitry Muratov over 30 years ago, was a prominent voice for independent journalism in Russia, known for its investigations into human rights abuses and corruption. In 2021, Muratov was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to "safeguard freedom of expression," a recognition that highlighted the perilous environment for independent media in Russia. The newspaper's operations were severely curtailed in 2022 following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The authorities revoked its registration and nationalized its printing presses, effectively shutting down its physical publication. Its website is now largely inaccessible within Russia, requiring VPNs to bypass restrictions.

This crackdown on Novaya Gazeta is part of a broader suppression of free speech in Russia that has intensified since February 2022. Muratov estimates that at least 1,500 people have been imprisoned for speaking out against state policy since the "special military operation" began, a number he states is three times higher than during the Soviet-era KGB. Many prominent critics have been labeled "foreign agents," "extremists," or "terrorists," severely limiting their rights and stigmatizing them within society. This environment has created a climate of fear, where even expressing dissent carries significant personal risk.

The Mechanism: State Control and Information Warfare

The Russian state's strategy to control information and suppress dissent involves a multi-pronged approach. Firstly, legal mechanisms such as the "foreign agent" law are used to marginalize and silence critics. Individuals designated as foreign agents face restrictions on teaching, participating in elections, and accessing their assets. This designation serves not only to limit their activities but also to create a societal perception of them as internal enemies.

Secondly, direct censorship and the closure of independent media outlets, like Novaya Gazeta, are employed to remove alternative sources of information. The blocking of websites and the revocation of media registrations ensure that state-controlled narratives dominate the information landscape. Thirdly, the government appears to be employing a strategy of psychological warfare, as evidenced by Muratov's observation of the increased frequency of nuclear weapon discussions in state-controlled media and at official events. This tactic may serve to intimidate adversaries and rally domestic support through appeals to national security and existential threats.

Who Is Affected and How

The crackdown on independent media and dissent directly impacts ordinary Russian citizens by limiting their access to diverse and critical information. Without independent news sources, citizens are more reliant on state-controlled media, which often presents a biased or incomplete picture of events, both domestically and internationally. This can hinder informed decision-making and public discourse.

Individuals who express dissenting opinions, journalists, and activists face severe repercussions, including imprisonment, professional limitations, and social stigmatization due to the "foreign agent" and "extremist" designations. For example, journalists like Antonina Favorskaya, Konstantin Gabov, Sergey Karelin, and Artyom Kriger have been jailed on extremism charges, while city councillor Alexei Gorinov was imprisoned for speaking out against the war. The death of musician Pavel Kushnir in pre-trial detention after protesting the war further illustrates the extreme risks faced by those who oppose state policy. Even Nobel laureates, like Muratov himself, are designated "foreign agents," highlighting the broad reach of these repressive measures.

What Happens Next

The future trajectory of the conflict and the internal situation in Russia hinges on several factors. Muratov's assertion that "victory" is unattainable suggests a prolonged and potentially devastating conflict. If Russia continues to escalate its military actions without achieving decisive gains, the economic and human costs will likely increase, potentially leading to greater domestic discontent, though the state's control over information and security apparatus may continue to suppress widespread public opposition.

A key variable is the potential use of nuclear weapons, a scenario Muratov views with concern due to its increased discussion in Russian state channels. If such a threshold were crossed, the global geopolitical landscape would be irrevocably altered, with unimaginable humanitarian consequences. Conversely, if diplomatic channels were to open and a resolution were found, the focus would shift to the immense task of rebuilding Ukraine and addressing the long-term consequences of the conflict, including the potential for political change within Russia. The extent to which international pressure, internal dissent, or a shift in leadership might influence Russia's actions remains uncertain, but the current trajectory points towards continued repression and a protracted conflict.